MP Materials公司 (MP) — 投资树状图 v1
第七阶段essay。压缩构建。日期：2026-05-19 · $22† · methodology: standard
一句话结论
MP在$22†是US稀土战略资源play：Mountain Pass矿+Stage 2分离+Stage 3 Fort Worth磁体厂创造唯一大规模非中国一体化稀土供应链；US/DOD战略弹性需求floors pricing；Stage 3磁体厂ramp是load-bearing执行风险（FATAL-FLAG-PROBATIONARY于资本配置）；NdPr定价波动；耐久性14/25 Medium-Low band with 1 PROBATIONARY致命标志——NOT合格for传统长期持有；SKIP for compounder framing；1%投机starter ONLY on Stage 3 magnet plant commercial ramp确认。
公司快照
MP Materials是主导US稀土一体化运营商。FY2025营收~$2.4-3亿†。三阶段垂直整合：（1）Mountain Pass矿+精矿厂；（2）Stage 2 NdPr氧化物分离；（3）Stage 3 Fort Worth Texas NdFeB磁体制造供应GM。DOD Title III + IRA Section 30D + Section 232 tariffs是关键政策支持。
五个事实
- Mountain Pass是唯一大规模operating US稀土矿 ✅C
- NdPr commodity pricing是central economic variable ⚠️C
- Stage 3 Fort Worth磁体厂是vertical-integration论题hinge — FATAL-FLAG-PROBATIONARY ⚠️C
- US/DOD战略资源政策支持MP经济above pure-commodity floor ✅C
- China稀土出口管制regime continuation drives strategic-resource premium ✅C
H-0论题
MP错配为commodity-cycle play；strategic-resource-with-government-backstop lens underprices price floor that US/DOD/IRA + EV-OEM willingness-to-pay creates；Stage 3磁体厂ramp 2025-2027 successfully triples vertical integration；NdPr pricing remains supported by China-policy continuation。H-0置信度~58%。
证伪：Stage 3 fails to reach commercial production by FY2027；NdPr collapses <$40/kg sustained；China lifts export controls；US/DOD政策反转。
投资树（嵌入）
A) Mountain Pass矿体 ⚠️C strong geology, partial margin | B) Stage 2分离 ⚠️C | C) Stage 3磁体（LOAD-BEARING）⚠️C execution-dependent | D) US/DOD政策 ✅C strong | E) China武器化+Western producers ✅C partial | F) 资本配置 ⚠️C FATAL-FLAG-PROBATIONARY
判定计数： 5 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗
情景
| 情景 | 概率 | 目标 | 上行/下行 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 看多 — Stage 3 successful + NdPr $60-80 + DOD续 | 20% | $40 | +82% |
| 基准 — Stage 3 modest + NdPr $50-65 + 政策stable | 50% | $22 | flat |
| 看空 — Stage 3 fails OR NdPr collapses OR China lifts | 30% | $10 | -55% |
期望值$22†；概率加权回报~0%。不对称1.5×有利IF Stage 3 ramps successfully，但bear-case概率meaningful（30%）。
最终判定
SKIP for compounder framing. Durability 14/25 Medium-Low; FATAL-FLAG-PROBATIONARY. NOT合格for 3-4% compounder sizing.
可选speculative position: 1% starter at $22 ONLY on Stage 3 confirmation. Max 2% even on confirmation. cycle_exposure: uncorrelated to AI-capex BUT MP own cycle highly volatile.
投资计分卡（K.3.5）
总计89/165 = 54% — wait/skip band。Per /39 normalized: 21.1/39 = 54%。
INDEX_META与正文匹配。
durability 14/25 Medium-Low band + 1 FATAL-FLAG-PROBATIONARY。NOT合格for compounder framing。
已知构建gaps：mispricing/h0_thesis/taxonomy/frameworks/questions/scenarios/implied_prob/peers/triggers_redflags/dashboard单独文件未生成。