StockNews falsifiable investment trees Manual

Archetype risk map

Each ticker is sorted into one of six investment archetypes. The tile per category shows health (avg H-0/XII/durability + %Grade-C), risk (fatal flags), freshness (oldest review), concentration (dominant cycle), and outliers (best/weakest/most-stale thesis).

Compounder under review

Health65% H-084% XII21 avg durability26% Grade C

Risk○ 0 fatal flags

Freshness ORCL overdue 10d

ConcentrationUncorrelated 47%

Outliersbest thesis AVGO H-0 75% weakest thesis AMZN H-0 53% most stale MS H-0 53%

Incumbent under threat

Health63% H-075% XII20 avg durability0% Grade C

Risk○ 0 fatal flags

Freshness NVDA overdue 2d

ConcentrationAI-capex high 44%

Outliersbest thesis GOOGL H-0 86% weakest thesis CRWD H-0 48% most stale BYD H-0 64%

Pre-inflection / optionality

Health60% H-069% XII19 avg durability0% Grade C

Risk⚑ 1 fatal flags

Freshness ANTHROPIC 135d

ConcentrationUncorrelated 27%

Outliersbest thesis AJNMY H-0 79% weakest thesis TSLA H-0 47% most stale ANTHROPIC H-0 52%

Value with overhang

Health57% H-077% XII18 avg durability0% Grade C

Risk⚑ 1 fatal flags

Freshness HMC 71d

ConcentrationUncorrelated 50%

Outliersbest thesis TCEHY H-0 66% weakest thesis COKE H-0 49% most stale HMC H-0 55%

Cyclical / macro-sensitive

Health60% H-075% XII18 avg durability15% Grade C

Risk○ 0 fatal flags

Freshness TOTDY 73d

ConcentrationUncorrelated 69%

Outliersbest thesis RESONAC H-0 72% weakest thesis SHEL H-0 39% most stale TOTDY H-0 62%

Speculative / fragile thesis

Health41% H-040% XII11 avg durability0% Grade C

Risk⚑ 6 fatal flags

Freshness PLTR overdue 2d

ConcentrationAI-capex high 67%

Outliersbest thesis PLTR H-0 66% weakest thesis SIVEF H-0 28% most stale SIVE H-0 28%

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Compounder under review

COST Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-10-06

Costco Wholesale (COST) — Investment Tree v1

High-quality compounder at full price·Asymmetric upside vs downside (unfavorable)

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 4 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 185230↓18/52/30

XII 91%Durability 23/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $923.52Sources 6 5/1/0

⚠ Score conflict⚠ Bear-tilted moat

DIS Screening memo Fresh Updated 2026-10-06

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — Investment Tree v1

Media conglomerate undergoing forced segment re segmentation with streaming profitability pivot·Per segment headline week interpretation misses integrated resegmentation

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 66%Prob 275419↑27/54/19

XII 70%Durability 18/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $103.61Sources 16 0/4/0

MCD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-10-06

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — Investment Tree v1

Land backed rent annuity with a fading royalty kicker·Rent annuity and royalty claim blended into one multiple

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 2 ⚠️ · 2 ⛔ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 61%Prob 225028↓22/50/28

XII 68%Durability 20/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $233.04Sources 18 12/4/2

META Grade A Due in 14d Updated 2026-10-02

Meta Platforms (META) — Investment Tree v1

Family of apps cash machine with AR and AI options under regulatory shadow·Bimodal distribution mispricing

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 12 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 174241↓17/42/41

XII 76%Durability 20/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $725.93Sources 17 17/0/0

⚠ Bear-tilted moat

SHOP Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-10-02

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — Investment Tree v1

Durable commerce infrastructure priced on revenue not gross profit·Gross profit basis peer group misassignment

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 225028↓22/50/28

XII 65%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex lowPrice $148.30Sources 10 7/2/1

ORCL Screening memo Overdue 10d Updated 2026-09-28

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — Investment Tree v1

Enterprise database incumbent pivoting to AI cloud growth engine·AI cloud backlog rerating priced in with leverage FCF risk

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 354520↑35/45/20

XII 75%Durability 19/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $140.35Sources 25 2/6/0

VEEV Screening memo Fresh Updated 2026-09-23

Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) — Investment Tree v1

Vertical cloud SaaS for pharma with salesforce to vault migration overhang·Back loaded vault crm migration de risk not priced

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 71%Prob 255520↑25/55/20

XII 91%Durability 22/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $260.91Sources 20 0/4/0

⚠ High conv / Grade C

AVGO Screening memo Overdue 6d Updated 2026-09-09

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — Investment Tree v1

Custom AI silicon with vmware cash engine and hyperscaler asic tam expansion·AI silicon rerating largely complete now fully valued

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 75%Prob 334522↑33/45/22

XII 87%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $357.90Sources 26 1/8/0

⚠ High conv / Grade C⚠ Stale conviction

LLY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Investment Tree v1

Glp 1 cash compounder with AI drug discovery option and ira overhang·Time horizon discount on fy2028 fy2035 cash flows under ira and biosimilar tail

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 10 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 69%Prob 275023↔27/50/23

XII 81%Durability 20/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $1,123.91Sources 27 5/2/0

MSFT Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant platform compounder with AI thesis confirming at full multiple·Blended multiple obscuring three distinct platform businesses

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 65%Prob 324523↑32/45/23

XII 90%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $493.95Sources 19 7/3/9 ⚠

⚠ Stale conviction

NOW Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) — Investment Tree v1

Best in class workflow compounder de rated on agentic AI fear·AI disruption fear overcorrection vs beneficiary evidence

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 64%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 95%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex lowPrice $134.21Sources 14 7/7/0

⚠ Score conflict⚠ Stale conviction

V Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

Visa Inc. (V) — Investment Tree v1

Payments network monopoly with vas second curve under stablecoin and agentic AI threat·Interpretation gap on stablecoin and agentic AI displacement timing

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 12 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 255520↑25/55/20

XII 91%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $368.80Sources 27 5/2/0

⚠ Score conflict⚠ Stale conviction

AMZN Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-04

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — Investment Tree v1

Three platform conglomerate with AWS reaccelerating and AI capex FCF compression·SOTP attribution blindness on advertising platform and trainium optionality

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 53%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 78%Durability 19/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $258.21Sources 18 5/2/11 ⚠

TSM Grade A Due in 1d Updated 2026-08-31

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — Investment Tree v1

Process node monopoly with geopolitical discount partially compressed·Cognitive bias geopolitical discount now partially priced

Verdicts 12 ✅ · 3 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 74%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 86%Durability 24/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $417.52Sources 21 21/0/0

⚠ Stale conviction

ASML Grade A Due in 1d Updated 2026-08-24

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — Investment Tree v1

EUV monopoly with AI capex supercycle and china overhang·Cyclical capital equipment lens vs structural monopoly lens

Verdicts 12 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 71%Prob 345016↑34/50/16

XII 93%Durability 23/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $1,763.76Sources 34 15/2/0

⚠ Stale conviction

ISRG Screening memo Fresh Updated 2026-08-21

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) — Investment Tree v1

Da vinci installed base monopoly with AI surgical analytics and single port expansion·Recurring revenue compounder lens underpriced vs system sales lens

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 72%Prob 305515↑30/55/15

XII 93%Durability 23/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $374.48Sources 21 0/3/0

⚠ High conv / Grade C⚠ Stale conviction

WMT Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-21

Walmart Inc (WMT) — Investment Tree v1

Retail incumbent pivoting to platform with advertising second curve and AI cost out·Orphan asset value inside blended retail multiple

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 65%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 92%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $102.41Sources 26 7/2/0

⚠ Stale conviction

AMD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-05

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — Investment Tree v1

Confirmed three platform compounder priced for perfection·Re rating complete priced above fair value

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 64%Prob 254530↓25/45/30

XII 77%Durability 22/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $476.15Sources 23 7/13/3

MS Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-07-15

Morgan Stanley (MS) — Investment Tree v1

Integrated wealth compounder at cyclical mix shift inflection·Cognitive bias lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 2 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 9 ⊗H-0 53%Prob 215128↓21/51/28

XII 95%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $213.48Sources 10 0/7/3

⚠ Score conflict⚠ Stale conviction

Incumbent under threat

NVDA Grade A Overdue 2d Updated 2026-10-06

NVIDIA (NVDA) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant incumbent under forced dual transition·Capital-intensity misunderstanding

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 78%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 86%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $238.90Sources 25 6/15/4 ⚠

MU Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-30

Micron Technology (MU) — Investment Tree v1

Commodity memory cyclical becoming AI infrastructure compounder·Cognitive bias lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 12 ✅ · 3 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 70%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 87%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $1,080.53Sources 12 0/11/1

CRWD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-25

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) — Investment Tree v1

Endpoint incumbent pivoting to AI security control plane·Option value structural blindness no model field

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 48%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 81%Durability 20/25Cycle AI-capex lowPrice $259.67Sources 13 0/11/2 ⚠

GOOGL Grade A Due in 14d Updated 2026-09-25

Alphabet (GOOGL) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant incumbent under forced dual transition·AI overhang overcorrection

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 86%Prob 305515↑30/55/15

XII 88%Durability 20/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $342.36Sources 12 7/4/1

ANET Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-11

Arista Networks (ANET) — Investment Tree v1

Networking os platform mid transition from hardware cycle vendor·Structural blindness lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 65%Prob 285022↑28/50/22

XII 74%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $194.96Sources 13 0/9/4 ⚠

PATH Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-06

UiPath (PATH) — Investment Tree v1

Disrupted incumbent pivoting to agentic orchestration infrastructure·AI victim bias suppressing orchestration infrastructure rerating

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 1 ⛔ · 4 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 53%Prob 156025↓15/60/25

XII 54%Durability 17/25Cycle AI-capex lowPrice $15.21Sources 13 10/1/1

DELL Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-05

Dell Technologies (DELL) — Investment Tree v1

Enterprise AI platform compounder in disclosure triggered identity switch·Structural blindness lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 51%Prob 285418↑28/54/18

XII 73%Durability 17/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $523.93Sources 12 0/9/3 ⚠

BABA Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-04

Alibaba Group (BABA) — Investment Tree v1

Cloud rerating confirmed under pentagon 1260h designation tail·Regulatory and pentagon designation overhang vs confirmed cloud SOTP

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 52%Prob 204535↓20/45/35

XII 69%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex midSovereign ImpairedPrice $111.81Sources 31 13/6/12 ⚠

⚠ Bear-tilted moat

BYD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-03

BYD Company Limited (1211.HK / 002594.SZ) — Investment Tree v1

Chinese EV platform with SOTP battery option under tariff and software siege·SOTP blindness on multi subsidiary platform misclassified as pure EV OEM

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 64%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 64%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedSovereign MixedPrice HK$94†Sources 11 1/5/5 ⚠

Pre-inflection / optionality

TSLA Grade A Due in 7d Updated 2026-10-06

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — Investment Tree v1

Pre inflection optionality with eroding auto core·Time lag and founder narrative premium

Verdicts 1 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 1 ⛔ · 2 ✗ · 6 ⊗H-0 47%Prob 323533↔32/35/33

XII 52%Durability 17/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $378.73Sources 21 21/0/0

RVMD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-10-02

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) — Investment Tree v1

De risked single asset ras platform at commercial inflection·Lead asset derisking fully priced platform right tail uncertain

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 10 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 55%Prob 344620↑34/46/20

XII 64%Durability 15/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $205.26Sources 10 4/5/1

HOOD Grade B Due in 1d Updated 2026-09-25

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Investment Tree v1

Identity-switch candidate·Identity misclassification — broker vs railroad

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 76%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 88%Durability 18/25Price $122.70Sources 12 7/4/1

TM Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-25

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) — Investment Tree v1

Legacy cash engine with structurally blind autonomy option·Structural blindness option value

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 4 ⊗H-0 55%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 72%Durability 22/25Cycle UncorrelatedSovereign MixedPrice $186.72Sources 13 6/5/1

OPENAI Grade B Fresh Updated 2026-09-21

OpenAI Group PBC (OPENAI) — Investment Tree v1

AI utility or compute trap with foundation warrant overhang·Governance discount overweight

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 58%Prob 225028↓22/50/28

XII 67%Durability 16/25Price $1,000.00Sources 21 0/17/4

NET Grade A Due in 1d Updated 2026-09-16

Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) — Investment Tree v1

Developer infrastructure platform reassigning from cloud security·Cognitive bias category anchor security identity

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 57%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 69%Durability 22/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $314.00Sources 12 0/12/0 ⚠

AAPL Grade B Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Investment Tree v1

Platform services transition from hardware incumbent·SOTP blindness on services vs hardware

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 67%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 85%Durability 19/25Price $316.22Sources 11 8/2/1 ⚠

⚠ Stale conviction

SNOW Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) — Investment Tree v1

Consumption platform at lifecycle inflection·Cognitive bias NRR anchoring and lifecycle stage blindness

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 70%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex midPrice $337.18Sources 10 0/1/9 ⚠

AJNMY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-07

Ajinomoto (AJNMY) — Investment Tree v1

AI infrastructure monopoly with food cash engine·Structural blindness on segment reporting

Verdicts 13 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 79%Prob 315019↑31/50/19

XII 90%Durability 22/25Cycle AI-capex highSovereign InsulatedPrice $33.37Sources 48 27/17/4

⚠ Stale conviction

SPACEX Grade B Due in 1d Updated 2026-08-10

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPACEX) — Investment Tree v1

Leo broadband monopoly with launch rump and AI bandwidth optionality·SOTP blindness on three segment stack

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 52%Prob 225226↔22/52/26

XII 52%Durability 17/25Price $134.33Sources 23 3/13/7

ANTHROPIC Grade B Due in 1d Updated 2026-06-02

Anthropic PBC (pre-IPO) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Frontier llm credible second with coi discount·Narrative driven overvaluation with analyst reliability discount

⚑ Fatal: Type E methodological flag — CoI haircut (Claude analyzing Anthropic); WAIT for external analyst regardless of substantive evidence

Verdicts 0 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 5 ⊗H-0 52%Prob 254530↓25/45/30

XII 52%Durability 17/25Price $965BSources 22 6/9/7

Value with overhang

SONY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-25

Sony Group Corporation (SONY) — Investment Tree v1

Premium franchise composite priced on a consumer durables blend·Peer group misclassification from inherited identity

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 1 ⛔ · 0 ✗ · 6 ⊗H-0 51%Prob 206020↔20/60/20

XII 79%Durability 18/25Cycle AI-capex lowSovereign MixedPrice $22.99Sources 21 21/0/0

SFTBY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-09

SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY) — Investment Tree v1

Holding company at nav discount with arm ip compounding and AI orchestration option·Anchoring bias vision fund framing

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 61%Prob 254530↓25/45/30

XII 79%Durability 21/25Cycle AI-capex highSovereign MixedPrice $20.85Sources 13 (unscored)

COKE Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-06

Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) — Investment Tree v1

Franchised bottler with contractually permissioned margin·Control and illiquidity discount mistaken for cheapness

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 1 ⛔ · 1 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 49%Prob 155035↓15/50/35

XII 64%Durability 13/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $189.33Sources 18 11/5/2

F Grade B Fresh Updated 2026-08-24

Ford Motor Company (F) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Incumbent mid-strategic-reset·Yield-substitute pricing ignores fundamental improvement

⚑ Fatal: Q3 10-year capital allocation — ROIC < WACC chronically; serial value destroyer per K.3.1 canonical

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 6 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 205030↓20/50/30

XII 81%Durability 17/25Price $14.43Sources 19 13/6/0

⚠ Flag + high score

TCEHY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-19

Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant super app compounder cheap on SOTP with geopolitical overhang·SOTP operating company obscured by portfolio plus geopolitical discount

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 3 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 66%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 89%Durability 20/25Cycle UncorrelatedSovereign ImpairedPrice $61.27Sources 25 0/11/14 ⚠

⚠ Stale conviction

HMC Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-05

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) — Investment Tree v1

Motorcycle cash engine obscured by distressed automaker classification·Structural blindness segment classification

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 5 ⊗H-0 55%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 69%Durability 18/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $30.11Sources 14 8/4/0

Cyclical / macro-sensitive

GS Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-10-02

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — Investment Tree v1

Dealmaking franchise fee momentum racing a still dominant capital intensive trading engine·Structural blindness lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 1 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 7 ⊗H-0 52%Prob 205030↓20/50/30

XII 85%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $896.67Sources 22 21/0/1

⚠ Score conflict⚠ Bear-tilted moat

MP Screening memo Fresh Updated 2026-09-28

MP Materials Corp (MP) — Investment Tree v1

Rare earth strategic asset rerated on dod backstop now richly valued·Dod backstop rerating largely priced in

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 304525↑30/45/25

XII 62%Durability 14/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $48.83Sources 25 2/6/0

STLD Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-25

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) — Investment Tree v1

Tariff windfall funding unproven multi metal platform transition·Structural blindness category classification lag

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 7 ⊗H-0 48%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 79%Durability 18/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $234.29Sources 13 0/10/1

COIN Screening memo Fresh Updated 2026-09-18

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) — Investment Tree v1

Crypto cycle platform with subscription services compounder and regulatory option·Transaction revenue cyclicality lens underprices s and s compounder

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 66%Prob 264529↔26/45/29

XII 68%Durability 16/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $164.51Sources 23 0/5/0

FCX Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-18

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) — Investment Tree v1

Policy quota beneficiary with foreign JV ownership dilution·Structural blindness domestic policy premium classification lag

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 70%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 87%Durability 19/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $70.90Sources 36 21/9/4

JPM Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-18

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — Investment Tree v1

Money center bank fortress balance sheet with cyclical peak earnings and succession reshuffle·Cognitive bias lifecycle stage classification error

Verdicts 1 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 10 ⊗H-0 52%Prob 275419↑27/54/19

XII 91%Durability 21/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $349.31Sources 11 0/11/0

⚠ Score conflict

SHEL Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-07

Shell plc (SHEL) — Investment Tree v1

Disciplined capital return major priced on war inflated earnings·Peak vs mid cycle earnings base ambiguity

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 2 ⛔ · 2 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 39%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 74%Durability 20/25Cycle UncorrelatedSovereign InsulatedPrice $92.95Sources 39 27/8/1

CVX Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-06

Chevron Corporation (CVX) — Investment Tree v1

Cash generative major on a seven year reserve clock·Depleting asset priced as perpetuity

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 1 ⛔ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 58%Prob 255025↔25/50/25

XII 47%Durability 16/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $208.60Sources 12 4/6/2

NEM Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-05

Newmont Corporation (NEM) — Investment Tree v1

Post transformation gold major with contested cost trajectory·Cognitive bias anchoring on legacy cost blowout history

Verdicts 2 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 5 ⊗H-0 65%Prob 206020↔20/60/20

XII 81%Durability 16/25Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $128.09Sources 11 0/8/1

CAT Grade B Fresh Updated 2026-08-21

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Investment Tree v1

Cyclical incumbent with data center power optionality·Identity persistence blocking AI adjacency reframing

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 68%Prob 404812↑40/48/12

XII 87%Durability 21/25Price $815.39Sources 12 5/6/1

⚠ Stale conviction

RESONAC Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-10

Resonac Holdings (4004.T) — Investment Tree v1

AI back end materials leader confirmed but fully valued post rerating·AI materials rerating largely priced in

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 72%Prob 305020↑30/50/20

XII 73%Durability 19/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $101.00Sources 8 6/2/0

NOK Grade B Fresh Updated 2026-08-07

Nokia Oyj (NOK) — Investment Tree v1

AI networking pivot confirmed but fully rerated above fair value·Rerating overshot cheap mispricing now closed

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 61%Prob 265024↔26/50/24

XII 70%Durability 17/25Price $9.58Sources 16 3/8/5

TOTDY Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-08-03

TOTO (TOTDY) — Investment Tree v1

Rerating played out now fully valued·Momentum-source mispricing vs cycle decay

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 13 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 185230↓18/52/30

XII 72%Durability 20/25Cycle AI-capex midSovereign ExposedPrice $39.43Sources 46 25/21/0

⚠ Bear-tilted moat

Speculative / fragile thesis

PLTR Grade A Overdue 2d Updated 2026-10-06

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Investment Tree v1

Platform vs substitute under co-opetition·Narrative overhang × political overlay

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 66%Prob 424018↑42/40/18

XII 77%Durability 17/25Cycle AI-capex lowPrice $189.40Sources 27 13/13/1

SIVEF Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-09-05

Sivers Semiconductors AB (SIVEF) — US OTC Line · Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Pipeline promise photonics cash burner on AI attached retail pump·AI attached small cap hype overvaluation

⚑ Fatal: Q3 capital allocation — never FCF-positive, serial diluter funding losses by recurring equity issuance; dev-cost impairments +2

Verdicts 1 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 8 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 28%Prob 155035↓15/50/35

XII 22%Durability 8/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $2.92

SIVE Grade A Fresh Updated 2026-07-17

Sivers Semiconductors AB (SIVE) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Pipeline promise photonics cash burner on AI attached retail pump·AI attached small cap hype overvaluation

⚑ Fatal: Q3 capital allocation — never FCF-positive, serial diluter funding losses by recurring equity issuance; dev-cost impairments +2

Verdicts 1 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 8 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 28%Prob 155035↓15/50/35

XII 22%Durability 8/25Cycle AI-capex highPrice $3.46Sources 18 1/13/4

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