StockNews falsifiable investment trees All tickers Manual

Browse by archetype

Each ticker is sorted into one of six investment archetypes. Pick a category to see what's inside — counts, average confidence, dominant cycle exposure.

Compounder under review

13tickers 66%avg H-0 84%avg XII Uncorrelateddominant cycle

Incumbent under threat

5tickers 69%avg H-0 80%avg XII AI-capex middominant cycle

Pre-inflection / optionality

8tickers 58%avg H-0 70%avg XII AI-capex highdominant cycle

Value with overhang

1tickers 60%avg H-0 86%avg XII —dominant cycle

Cyclical / macro-sensitive

4tickers 63%avg H-0 71%avg XII Uncorrelateddominant cycle

Speculative / fragile thesis

2tickers 56%avg H-0 68%avg XII AI-capex middominant cycle

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Compounder under review

ASML Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — Investment Tree v1

EUV monopoly with AI capex supercycle and china overhang·Cyclical capital equipment lens vs structural monopoly lens

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 13 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 78%Prob 305020↑30/50/20
XII 94%Cycle AI-capex highPrice €950
English 中文
AVGO Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — Investment Tree v1

Custom AI silicon with vmware cash engine and hyperscaler asic tam expansion·Hybrid silicon software multiple not separately valued

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 75%Prob 304525↑30/45/25
XII 85%Cycle AI-capex highPrice $235
English 中文
DIS Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — Investment Tree v1

Media conglomerate undergoing forced segment re segmentation with streaming profitability pivot·Per segment headline week interpretation misses integrated resegmentation

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 2 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 64%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 70%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $110
English 中文
ISRG Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) — Investment Tree v1

Da vinci installed base monopoly with AI surgical analytics and single port expansion·Recurring revenue compounder lens underpriced vs system sales lens

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 72%Prob 305515↑30/55/15
XII 93%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $530
English 中文
LLY Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Investment Tree v1

Glp 1 cash compounder with AI drug discovery option and ira overhang·Time horizon discount on fy2028 fy2035 cash flows under ira and biosimilar tail

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 79%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $760
English 中文
ORCL Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — Investment Tree v1

Enterprise database incumbent pivoting to AI cloud growth engine·Database incumbent vs AI cloud growth lens oscillation

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 68%Prob 304525↑30/45/25
XII 73%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $165
English 中文
V Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Visa Inc. (V) — Investment Tree v1

Payments network monopoly with vas second curve under stablecoin and agentic AI threat·Interpretation gap on stablecoin and agentic AI displacement timing

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 13 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 61%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 90%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $360
English 中文
VEEV Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) — Investment Tree v1

Vertical cloud SaaS for pharma with salesforce to vault migration overhang·Back loaded vault crm migration de risk not priced

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 8 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 71%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 91%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $235
English 中文
WMT Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Walmart Inc (WMT) — Investment Tree v1

Retail incumbent pivoting to platform with advertising second curve and AI cost out·Orphan asset value inside blended retail multiple

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 85%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $98
English 中文
TSM Grade A Updated 2026-05-17

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — Investment Tree v1

Process node monopoly with geopolitical discount partially compressed·Cognitive bias geopolitical discount now partially priced

Verdicts 10 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 72%Prob 304525↑30/45/25
XII 86%Cycle AI-capex highPrice $410
English 中文
AMZN Screening memo Updated 2026-05-13

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — Investment Tree v1

Three platform conglomerate with AWS share erosion and AI capex J curve·SOTP attribution blindness on advertising platform and trainium optionality

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 2 ⊗H-0 48%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 77%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $220
English 中文
META Grade A Updated 2026-05-11

Meta Platforms (META) — Investment Tree v1

Family of apps cash machine with AR and AI options under regulatory shadow·Bimodal distribution mispricing

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 12 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 174241↓17/42/41
XII 76%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $614.23
English 中文
COST Grade B Updated 2026-05-03

Costco Wholesale (COST) — Investment Tree v1

High-quality compounder at full price·Asymmetric upside vs downside (unfavorable)

Verdicts 13 ✅ · 11 ⚠️ · 4 ✗ · 7 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 185230↓18/52/30
XII 91%Price $1,014.53
English 中文

Incumbent under threat

BABA Grade A Updated 2026-05-21

Alibaba Group (BABA) — Investment Tree v1

Chinese technology conglomerate with cloud SOTP discount and regulatory normalization overhang·Regulatory overhang cognitive bias suppressing cloud SOTP rerating

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 58%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 67%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $87.50
English 中文
MSFT Screening memo Updated 2026-05-18

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant platform compounder under AI monetization timing stress·Blended multiple obscuring three distinct platform businesses

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 88%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $365
English 中文
NOK Grade B Updated 2026-05-07

Nokia Oyj (NOK) — Investment Tree v1

Network incumbent pivoting to AI infrastructure·Cognitive bias on category

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 71%Price $5.42
English 中文
GOOGL Grade A Updated 2026-05-03

Alphabet (GOOGL) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant incumbent under forced dual transition·AI overhang overcorrection

Verdicts 12 ✅ · 3 ⚠️H-0 88%Prob 305515↑30/55/15
XII 88%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $341.68
English 中文
NVDA Grade A Updated 2026-05-03

NVIDIA (NVDA) — Investment Tree v1

Dominant incumbent under forced dual transition·Capital-intensity misunderstanding

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 75%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 86%Cycle AI-capex highPrice $209.25
English 中文

Pre-inflection / optionality

TSLA Grade B Updated 2026-05-17

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — Investment Tree v1

Pre inflection optionality with eroding auto core·Time lag and founder narrative premium

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 5 ⊗H-0 50%Prob 303535↓30/35/35
XII 52%Price $422
English 中文
ANTHROPIC Grade B Updated 2026-05-15

Anthropic PBC (pre-IPO) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Frontier llm credible second with coi discount·Narrative driven overvaluation with analyst reliability discount

Verdicts 0 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 2 ✗ · 5 ⊗H-0 47%Prob 204535↓20/45/35
XII 48%Price $122.75B
English 中文
OPENAI Grade B Updated 2026-05-15

OpenAI Group PBC (OPENAI) — Investment Tree v1

AI utility or compute trap with foundation warrant overhang·Governance discount overweight

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 10 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 4 ⊗H-0 58%Prob 225028↓22/50/28
XII 67%Price $1,000.00
English 中文
SPACEX Grade B Updated 2026-05-15

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPACEX) — Investment Tree v1

Leo broadband monopoly with launch rump and AI bandwidth optionality·SOTP blindness on three segment stack

Verdicts 3 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 1 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 48%Prob 185230↓18/52/30
XII 52%Price $1,000.00
English 中文
AJNMY Grade A Updated 2026-05-12

Ajinomoto (AJNMY) — Investment Tree v1

AI infrastructure monopoly with food cash engine·Structural blindness on segment reporting

Verdicts 11 ✅ · 6 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 75%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 91%Cycle AI-capex highPrice $29.65
English 中文
AMD Screening memo Updated 2026-05-10

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — Investment Tree v1

Pre inflection challenger with three hidden compounders·SOTP blindness on multi platform compounder

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 4 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 3 ⊗H-0 50%Prob 284725↔28/47/25
XII 79%Cycle AI-capex highPrice $105
English 中文
AAPL Grade B Updated 2026-05-04

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Investment Tree v1

Platform services transition from hardware incumbent·SOTP blindness on services vs hardware

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 65%Prob 304525↑30/45/25
XII 85%Price $280
English 中文
HOOD Grade B Updated 2026-05-03

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Investment Tree v1

Identity-switch candidate·Identity misclassification — broker vs railroad

Verdicts 7 ✅ · 5 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 67%Prob 305515↑30/55/15
XII 88%Price $91.28
English 中文

Value with overhang

F Grade B Updated 2026-05-03

Ford Motor Company (F) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Incumbent mid-strategic-reset·Yield-substitute pricing ignores fundamental improvement

Verdicts 6 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 3 ✗ · 6 ⊗H-0 60%Prob 255025↔25/50/25
XII 86%Price $11.89
English 中文

Cyclical / macro-sensitive

COIN Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) — Investment Tree v1

Crypto cycle platform with subscription services compounder and regulatory option·Transaction revenue cyclicality lens underprices s and s compounder

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 67%Prob 254530↓25/45/30
XII 68%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $245
English 中文
MP Screening memo Updated 2026-05-19

MP Materials Corp (MP) — Investment Tree v1 ⚑

Rare earth strategic resource with china supply overhang and magnet vertical integration·Commodity cycle lens underprices strategic resource floor

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 5 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 0 ⊗H-0 58%Prob 205030↓20/50/30
XII 54%Cycle UncorrelatedPrice $22
English 中文
CAT Grade B Updated 2026-05-07

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Investment Tree v1

Cyclical incumbent with data center power optionality·Identity persistence blocking AI adjacency reframing

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 8 ⚠️ · 0 ✗ · 1 ⊗H-0 62%Prob 285220↑28/52/20
XII 87%Price $917.64
English 中文
TOTDY Grade A Updated 2026-05-03

TOTO (TOTDY) — Investment Tree v1

Post-news re-rating with cyclical overhang·Momentum-source mispricing vs cycle decay

Verdicts 9 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 65%Prob 225523↔22/55/23
XII 76%Cycle AI-capex midPrice $41.27
English 中文

Speculative / fragile thesis

PLTR Grade B Updated 2026-05-03

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Investment Tree v1

Platform vs substitute under co-opetition·Narrative overhang × political overlay

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 9 ⚠️ · 2 ✗H-0 58%Prob 354520↑35/45/20
XII 77%Price $128.06
English 中文
RESONAC Screening memo Updated 2026-05-03

Resonac Holdings (4004.T) — Investment Tree v1

AI substrate second-source candidate·Structural blindness on second-source emergence

Screening memo, not investment memo — Tier-C evidence throughout; pull primary sources before sizing.

Verdicts 4 ✅ · 7 ⚠️ · 0 ✗H-0 55%Prob 255520↑25/55/20
XII 60%Cycle AI-capex midPrice ¥4,250
English 中文